Fearless Forecast: 80-20

4 10 2007

MY fearless forecast for this year’s UAAP finals is 80-20 percent in favor of UE.

70 percent for the University of the East because it has a 14-0 record – the first ever sweep accomplished by a team since the new final four format was introduced in 1994.

If you look back on the old UE team in 2002, with superstars James Yap, Niño KG Canaleta, Ronald Tubid, Paul Artadi and Olan Omiping still around, you cannot imagine the team will miss the title.

Ironically, that team, under Boyzie Zamar, had lost the title after bowing to Ateneo in the Final Four.

For this season, the Red Warriors have no “superstars” but effective role players. They have executed their game to near perfection.

20 percent for La Salle because lady luck is still in the air no matter what happens. It is still anybody’s ball game when you put this into the equation.

The Red Warriors, under head coach and ex-pro Dindo Pumaren, have been fully rested for weeks since defeating the Green Archers of Franz in overtime, 94-82, last September 13.

The Green Archers, perhaps emotionally drained in their last two games against tough Ateneo, are expecting to pass through the proverbial eye of the needle to snatch a win against a well-rested UE in their best-of-three finals series.

Even if La Salle will luckily win in Game 1, it still can’t be told. But if that happens, La Salle will hold a huge advantage.

Aside from its long lay-off, UE, which won its last crown in 1985-1986, has so many advantages to win its 19th Senior Men’s title.

The Red Warriors, on the offensive end, have topped the scoring department (1,193) ahead of De La Salle (1,133) in the end of the elimination round.

They also led in field-goal percentage (43.6 percent), three-point field goals (34.6), and assists (18.8). They are also second in two-point field goals (46.8), free throws (65.5 percent) and rebounds (694).

In defense, UE allowed its opponent to a league leading 69.1 points.

While La Salle gave up the ball only 215 times, topping the league. They are also second in steals with 84.

Both the Red Warriors and the Green Archers are tied in fast break points at 212, while UE scored more turnover points (308) than La Salle (272).

Mark Borboran tops the team in scoring with 10.7 points and has a decent three-point shot (35.6 percent).

Kelvin Gregorio is the team’s second-leading scorer with 10.1 points with a 4.3 rebounding average. Parri Llagas averages 7.3 points, mostly from inside the shaded area.

UE has a deeper bench too—with Paul Lee, Hans Thiele, Rudy Lingganay and Mark Fampulme contributing.

Guard James Martinez will definitely be sniping from the three-point area (41 percent), while Marcy Arellano will also provide the extra numbers (9.1 points, 3rd on the team and a team-high 3.9 assists).

But if the De La Salle Green Archers can double their effort offensively and defensively, chances to score an upset and capture its 7th UAAP crown remain a possibility.

JV Casio leads De La Salle in scoring with 15.0 points, and Tang is expected to use his ability to look for the open man as he leads the team in assists with 4.0.

Rico Maierhofer is the Green Archers’ second-leading scorer with 11.9 points and leads the team in rebounding with 8.6. Cholo Villanueva, the Green Archers’ emotional leader, has averaged 9.9 points, including 13 points in their last game against Ateneo.

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20 responses

4 10 2007
Impending Victors

This is the part where all you lasalle bashers eat your words. Tama na bashing. Let’s just watch the games coz they speak for themselves. WE WILL BE CHAMPIONS. It’s inevitable. :). Haha. Sana.

PS: All this banter is just what comes out of our passion for our own schools. Walang personalan. Tama na reklamo about refs and all that crap. Nasa utak nio lang yang luto luto na yan. What if the last second 3-pointer was made? Edi panalo UE. Wala sa ref yun, nasa players yun. May the best team win. See you guys on Sunday. Red and green alike. 🙂

5 10 2007
Asa

Mr. Ramos, wanna bet? :))

5 10 2007
greenthumb

anong klaseng analysis itong article mo mr josef ramos? your examples are baseless. i’ll cite some.

1. UE’s 14-0 record. when you reach the finals, that has been erased. that’s why it’s best-of-3 now. and DLSU winning games and reaching no. 2 is just as significant as UE’s no. 1 standing.

of course, DLSU lost games and UE did not. but remember the last outing between these 2 schools went to overtime.

2. DLSU’s lady luck. it’s all about skills. not luck. DLSU’s road to the finals was not easy.

3. Emotionally-drained DLSU and well-rested UE. Yesterday’s game was close all throughout the game. DLSU stood its ground.

In fairness, some of the things you said were alright. I just disagreed on some especially the ones I pointed out above.

5 10 2007
dp

eh panalo eh…

5 10 2007
Boy Pakwan

Experience told a big blow to UE Warriors. They do have the talent, the makings of Murder, Inc II, the system, and the hunger but sorely lack in experience. This translated in an endgame debacle, they were not seriously challenged during the regular season. La Salle managed to bring them to overtime but it was really a matter of survival then. Experience meant endgame poised when needed. No clear leadership inside the court was visible and this only worsen their situation.

La Salle is dangerous at this stage, you don’t see any player getting into cramps or do you see any lethargic defense at all. They are not just happy to be able to end Ateneo’s season, they are out for Redemption, they are hungrier than ever. And they will come to game2 armed with conviction that they know how to hold UE’s offense and they can easily made adjustment during the games to counter whatever UE can muster.

Animo La Salle!

6 10 2007
josef ramos

Thanks greenthumb for your nice reaction re: my comment.

Although it is only a plain opinion and analysis of mine, I would like to congratulate you guys for winning Game 1.

Defense did it and nothing more.

UE lost its winning touch because of it.

Back to my comment, UE has an 80 percent advantage because the Red Warriors are leading pack with 14-0.

Yes you are right, 14-0 is nothing in the Finals series, but that’s a huge factor somehow mentally.

Yes it was luck. If La Salle wasn’t lucky, Borboran’s last attempt in the last second beyond the arc would go in.

But luckily it didn’t and La Salle won.

Talking about skills, the only thing that kept La Salle alive was its defense and championship experience.

These two advantages of La Salle is included to 20 percent…

La Salle should sustain its feat and, otherwise, UE could comeback strong to win back-to-back to capture the title.

7 10 2007
The Green Grass

20 > 80. wuhoo!!!

7 10 2007
archer one

Enggkkkk!!! Wrong answer! Try again next year!

8 10 2007
berdengArrow

na sweep natin finals hehehe…
sa UE na yung record na 14-0..angkinin niyo na yan at amin na yung Championship trophy!

8 10 2007
Bow and Arrow

mr. ramos.. wrong forecast.. magsama kayo ng PAGASA!!

8 10 2007
cesar_asar2004

quit this site, marami ka pang kakaning bigas tol!

8 10 2007
Jayvee

No need to blame Mr. Ramos here.

Forecasts are bound to hit straight the target or miss badly. He gave his arguments naman in an objective way so no need to snark him.

Until the next finals forecast, Mr. Ramos.

8 10 2007
josef ramos

Thanks Jayvee…

I salute La Salle for disproving my forecast.

The Green Archers really played well and they used their championship experience to the fullest.

I admit that I was suprised the way La Salle play even in Game 1…

Long live Green Archers… Anyway…

Thanks for your comments and critics…God Bless you guys

8 10 2007
greenthumb

you’re a gentleman mr. ramos.

8 10 2007
Luntiang Sinag

Interesting analysis, Mr. Ramos. I always read your columns…

Season 70 is a roller-coaster ride for the Archers. Forward/Center Marco Batricevic was injured in a Summer Nike League game. Both James Mangahas and Rico Maierhofer also obtained injuries.

Meanwhile, Rookie Brian Illad was suspended for five games due to punching Warrior Mark Fampulme. Illad is the Archer’s center (6’5’’) and is a big factor to counter the big men of Warriors.

The Archers lost three games against their archrival Blue Eagles and twice against the Warriors. But brazing the tough road is still worth it as they notched the Season 70 championship, now having a total of seven UAAP titles since they joined the league in 1986. They battled turbulent times and showed one aspect of a team that they have – HEART.

8 10 2007
archer one

Great sport Mr. Ramos. Appreciate the recognition. We all had our guesses. You were fair. More of your breed, please!

9 10 2007
Green Archer

It’s 80-20 La Salle. Champs!

17 10 2007
GODISWATCHINGUSALL

mr ramos has nothing to be ashamed of, honestly. on that 80-20 thing.. he has forgot to include the refs.. maybe its just that on the 20 percent chance of lasalle, they had their secret weapon. kaboom! you know it lasalle fans, and dont dare deny it. remember, god is watching us all. on game 1, it was fair. on the 2nd game, it was the worst. great control of the game refs, literally controlling the game. =( shame on them.

17 10 2007
GODISWATCHINGUSALL

luntiang sinag, archers never had the heart.. only warriors have that. what you have that we dont is mo**y..

17 10 2007
GODISWATCHINGUSALL

berdeng arrow, wag nyo nman angkinin ang trophy nag kayo2 lng.. isama nyo nman ung mga refs.. naghirap nman dn cla jn ah! =)

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